Research

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CEVES has systematically monitored macroeconomic trends in Serbia and conducted in-depth and policy economic research in the areas of: macroeconomic structure and policy, development policies, labour market structure, regional development, competitiveness and health care. Under the OSI-TTF Funding, CEVES conducted “The Stylized Facts Study” — a foundational project that revealed the true macroeconomic structure of Serbia’s economy.

In addition to conducting evidence-based analysis of Serbia’s economy, CEVES had regularly analysed over twenty issues from an macroeconomic angle in the QM (including employment, environmental protection, corporate legislation, mineral resources etc.). CEVES also completed a dozen projects whose aim was to scrutinize some of the areas highly relevant for the development of Serbia’s economy and society, present them to the general public and initiate public debate when needed in order to impact the relevant institutions.

In its view the accumulation of such knowledge is necessary for setting up employment-generating projects and initiatives, which will ensure that its mission and programs are sustainable. As such, CEVES will aim to inspire and motivate civic engagement by economic prospects and logic, in order to improve overall economic conditions and ensure Serbia’s democratic stability. However, CEVES will also work on foundational, institutional research that will help inform all other specific policy work to come.

[exbox title="Quarterly Monitor of Economic Trends and Policies in Serbia (QM)"]

The Quarterly Monitor of Economic Trends and Policies in Serbia (QM), initially developed by CEVES in 2005 by Kori Udovički, (current Minister of the Public Administration and Local Self-Government and founder of CEVEs) has now become the most representative and relevant publication of the Foundation for the Advancement of Economics (FREN). QM regularly monitors and analyzes the general macroeconomic situation and economic policies in Serbia, comparing it with the EU and other countries in South-East Europe. QM’s main aim is giving a thorough insight on the state of Serbia’s economy, together with offering comments and recommendations to policy makers on the most serious issues Serbia is facing.

Quarterly Monitors focus on six main topics: Economic Activity, Employment and Wages, Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade, Prices and the Exchange Rate, Fiscal Flows and Policy and Monetary Flows and Policy.

The QM current Editor-in-Chief is Milojko Arsić, economics lecturer the Faculty of Economics at the University of Belgrade and former Member of the Council National Bank of Serbia.

QM41 QM40  QM39 QM38 QM37 QM36 QM35 QM34 QM33 QM32

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[exbox title="Serbia’s Economy: The Stylized Facts - SF"]

CEVES report published in 2007 consists of a deep and comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic figures, including key price, exchange rate, production and output data, publicly available fiscal, monetary and external sector data. The main focus of the report was on the national accounts data and on providing a new framework for the analysis of Serbian economy.

The study uncovered substantial mistakes and problems, especially related to the GDP level and the expenditure structure. The final conclusions of the study called for a prompt revision by the Republic Bureau of Statistics (SBS) of the official methodology and figures for GDP and investment.

Stylized Facts – Volume I

Stylized Facts – Volume II (Appendices)

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[exbox title="Defining Criteria for Underdeveloped Municipalities"]

In 2006, CEVES submitted a study for the Deputy Prime Minister’s “Poverty Reduction Strategy Implementation Focal Point”, investigating the defining criteria for municipality underdevelopment. The main aim of the analysis is elaborating a methodology, uncovering the current and prospective economic and welfare conditions of municipalities. Despite the lack of data, CEVES could identify several indicators which enable to measure municipal underdevelopment and to rank the municipalities accordingly.

Furthermore, CEVES study provided recommendations for future data collection practices, in order to have more reliable and substantial data to work on.

Defining Criteria for Underdeveloped Municipalities

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[exbox title="Mapping Serbia's Labour Market"]

CEVES published this study, which provided a characterization of labor markets at the district and municipality level in Serbia, and uncovered factors behind unequal performance.

Mapping Serbia’s Labour Market

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[exbox title="Understanding New Services Sector in Serbia"]

In January 2007, CEVES conducted a study to investigate the developments and potentials of the new services sector. Since several studies have demonstrated that one of the fastest ways that developing countries have to accelerate their progress and to access the global economy is relying on advances in the Information and Technology (ICT) sector, CEVES decide conduct a rigorous research in sector. A questionnaire was developed and submitted to 359 enterprises in Belgrade in order to gather more data on the current situation of ICT and look for developments potentials of the sector. The survey provided recommendations to policy makers and businesses to enhance human capital and develop appropriate infrastructure, to transform Serbia into a developed country.

Understanding New Services Sector in Serbia

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[exbox title="Review of Economic Indicators for CRDA and SEDP Projects"]

In April 2007 CEVES performed a pre-evaluation of two programs financed by USAID: Community Revitalization through Democratic Action (CRDA) program and Serbia Enterprise Development Project (SEDP). CRDA and SEDP focused on strengthening Serbia’s democratic process and transition. CEVES expertise in the economic field and its prior collaboration with USAID made CEVES the best candidate to perform an evaluation of performs. The overall purpose of the study was assessing strengths and weaknesses of the past finished programs, together with providing recommendations for future projects. CEVES detected three main problems which negatively affected the monitoring and evaluation of the programs: first of all, a consistent evaluation plan had not been created at the very beginning of the programs; second objectives and priorities changed several times along the course of the programs; and finally the multidimensional nature of CRDA made monitoring process much more complicated.
CEVES final conclusions on the programs revealed several areas for future improvement, which include: adapting the tools to changing objectives; improving the methodology used in order to have more consistent results and reduce to the minimum which could finally lead to inconsistent results.

Reviewing relative strengths and weaknesses – CRDA, SEDP

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[exbox title="Assessment of the Barriers for the Investments in South Serbia"]

CEVES performed research about Southern Serbia, which identified ways in which local administration can improve so as to allow a greater influx of investment and faster economic and social development.

Assessment of the Barriers for the Investments in South Serbia

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[exbox title="Serbia Living Standards"]

CEVES was engaged by The World Bank to analyze and rank municipalities in Serbia according to their level of development and consequently help allocate central government’s development funds to stimulate equal regional development.

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[exbox title="Estimation of resources impact for selected business-related administrative procedures"]

CEVES conducted this study for USAID MEGA Program trough The Urbane Institute and The National Alliance for Economic Development (NALED).

Estimation of resources impact for selected business-related administrative procedures

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[exbox title="Partner of the WEF"]

In January 2008, CEVES became a Partner Institute of the Global Competitiveness Network of the World Economic Forum (WEF), on whose behalf it carried out the Executive Opinion Surveys in Serbia in 2008 and 2009.

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[exbox title="Health Care System and Spending in Serbia"]

CEVES was engaged by the Open Society Institute to work on the project, in which it was concluded that significant progress had been made in the area of health status indicators, and that monitoring financial flow in the health at national level effectively is necessary in order to have a real picture of the health sector.

Health Care System and Spending in Serbia

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