{"id":14023,"date":"2026-05-07T13:33:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T11:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/?p=14023"},"modified":"2026-10-12T15:07:12","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T13:07:12","slug":"kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/","title":{"rendered":"How Policy Continues to Undermine Competitiveness and Institutions"},"content":{"rendered":"

May 2026.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CEVES Newsletter<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Dear friends, associates, and partners,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We share with you the bulletin for the first quarter of 2026, in which we examine an economy that, at first glance, shows a somewhat better result than during last year\u2019s slowdown, yet without signs of a broad and sustainable recovery.\n\nBehind the preliminary growth rate of 3.0%, the exhaustion of a development\n\nmodel long reliant on public spending, large projects, and a narrow set of export sectors is becoming ever more apparent, while the domestic private sector still lacks a sufficiently strong foundation for a new investment and productivity impulse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the CEVES Observatory, we demonstrate that growth in the first quarter does not rest on a broad economic recovery, but on limited sources: growth in wages (especially in the public sector) and pensions, EXPO, motor vehicle exports, mining, and inventories. Of particular concern is the fact that recovery has yet to materialise in investment, manufacturing, and domestic SMEs \u2014 precisely those segments of the economy that would need to compensate for the weakening of the growth drivers that have prevailed until now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, current economic policy continues to undermine competitiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the CEVES Position, we argue that the latest changes to the rules governing the adoption of regulations are not a technical acceleration of EU alignment, but rather a circumvention of the public \u2014 and a serious blow to the expertise and professionalism of the public administration. This weakens precisely what should serve as the foundation of Serbia\u2019s European path: accountable decision-making, justified public policies, and institutions that operate in the public interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CEVES Observatory<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The start of 2026 appears to bring a somewhat higher growth rate, but weaker prospects for future growth. <\/strong>Following the slowdown in GDP growth from 3.9% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, the partial recovery to 2.2% in Q4 did not signal a return to stronger private-sector growth. If the flash estimate of 3.0% for Q1 2026 is not overstated, it reflects the same pattern. Growth continues to rest on real wage growth and current public expenditure, EXPO and residential construction, and a handful of large export anchors \u2014 primarily linked to Stellantis, Zijin, and rubber industry FDI. The rest of the economy is stagnating or decelerating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Public expenditure and real wages continued to drive consumption, housing demand, and infrastructure projects. <\/strong>Year-on-year fiscal loosening in Q1 2026 (measured through the primary deficit excluding Rafale payments and capital expenditure) amounted to approximately 1.2% of quarterly GDP, or around \u20ac250 million. This is the result of a 14.3% rise in current expenditure, with growth in wages, pensions, goods, and services ranging from 10\u201316%.\n\nReal wages rose 8.5% year-on-year in January and February, partly due to public-sector wages and a roughly 10% real increase in the minimum wage, and partly due persistently unaddressed labour-market mismatches. This contributed to the largest year-on-year increase in real retail trade turnover in seven quarters (8%). Housing demand also remained strong, with residential mortgage lending to households growing by more than 60% year-on-year for the sixth consecutive quarter. Together with state capital expenditures related to EXPO and investments by EPS and EDS, these factors largely explain the 8.9% investment growth recorded in Q4 2025. A similar trend is continuing into Q1 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Private investment most clearly demonstrates the absence of recovery.\n\nNew investment loans to enterprises, after growing by 46.2% in 2024, slowed to 13.0% in 2025, came to a near standstill in Q4 2025, and fell by as much as 18.9% year-on-year in Q1 2026. For SMEs, the decline was 23.7%. FDI followed the same trajectory: inflows fell 34% in 2025, and were nearly 30%\n\nlower year-on-year in January and February 2026. Furthermore, the apparent recovery of investment from the EU and in the manufacturing sector is largely illusory, as it consists predominantly of Chinese companies (Linglong and Zijin) domiciled in the Netherlands. Announcements of new FDI for 2026 are likewise largely confined to smaller Chinese investments in automotive and EV-related activities, while foreign suppliers in labour-intensive sectors continue to announce closures and reductions in activity.<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Production and exports reveal how narrow Serbia\u2019s competitiveness base has become. <\/strong>Continuing the trend from Q4 2025, overall industrial production\n\nfell by 0.8% in Q1 2026, with manufacturing declining by 0.4%. Excluding electricity, goods exports grew by 9.1%, but almost all of the increase came from Stellantis, rubber-sector FDI, Zijin and the rest of basic metals. Outside these anchors, the rest of industry is at best stagnant or oscillating, while\n\ntextiles, clothing, and furniture continue to weaken. Services exports played a stabilising role in 2025 \u2014 primarily through business services \u2014 while ICT gradually decelerated. Nevertheless, services exports fell by 1.7% in January and February, with business services and ICT now also stagnating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labour market dynamics illustrate how competitiveness pressures are translating into employment. <\/strong>Wages have continued to grow faster than productivity, and the deceleration in unit labour cost growth in 2025 came primarily through headcount adjustment rather than productivity gains. In Q1 2026, registered employment fell modestly overall but declined by 3.3% in manufacturing. Reported employer demand for labour fell by 22% in March, while the number of unemployment benefit recipients rose by 13%. Having already lost its cost-competitiveness advantage relative to all Central and Eastern European countries, Serbia can sustain (wage) growth only through\n\nproductivity growth. Yet the policy focus remains largely elsewhere \u2013 on policies that continue to erode rather than strengthen Serbia\u2019s competitiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CEVES Stance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

New Decrees \u2014 A New Circumvention of EU Acquis Alignment<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

CEVES calls on all those concerned with good governance in Serbia to oppose the recently adopted amendments to the decrees governing the process of adopting new regulations and public policies (hereinafter \u201cregulations\u201d).\n\nThrough these amendments, the Government has exempted itself from the obligation to subject new regulations to public consultation and to submit them for assessment to the Republic Secretariat for Public Policies (RSJP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This exemption applies \u201conly\u201d to cases where a regulation concerns \u201calignment with EU law\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 which in practice can encompass virtually any regulatory change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider the case of the \u201cMrdi\u0107 laws\u201d on the prosecution service. Those measures were so undemocratic and un-European that the European Commission prompted the Venice Commission to issue an expedited opinion on them. That opinion is now being discussed through the wrong procedure, and although it is unusually detailed and directive in nature, it is difficult to believe that all substantive matters will be restored to their previous state. The hardest to restore will be the most important: ensuring that all professional and dedicated prosecutors who worked on sensitive cases within the Special<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eof the \u201dMrdi\u0107 laws\" on the prosecution. Those measures were so undemocratic and non-European that the EC initiated the Venice Commission to provide an opinion on them urgently. That opinion is now being discussed through the wrong procedure<\/strong><\/a>,<\/a> and although the opinion is unusually detailed and directive \u2013 it is difficult to believe that all essential matters will be restored to their previous state. The most difficult will be the most important \u2013 that all professional and diligent prosecutors who worked on sensitive cases in TOK return to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the \u201cEuropean\u201d opinion may formally patch things up, but by then the damage will already have been done. If these decrees remain in force, neither civil society nor the RSJP will be able to flag problematic regulations in time. By \u201cproblematic\u201d we mean not only measures that are undemocratic, but also the range of possible \u201cwell-intentioned\u201d errors and inconsistencies that the RSJP and civil society currently identify before they cause harm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The RSJP is not just any institution. It is arguably the most important \u2014 and certainly the most unique \u2014 achievement of nearly a decade and a half of effort, and substantial EU funding, invested in improving the functioning of Serbia\u2019s administration, and in particular in building the \u201ccentre of government\u201d without which serious state governance is simply not possible. The EU itself has on countless occasions underscored \u201cthe importance of the strong quality control role of the Republic Secretariat for Public Policies and other centre-of-<\/p>\n\n\n\n

government institutions.\u201d I therefore hope it will promptly recognise that with this manoeuvre, the regime is significantly raising the temperature of the pot in which it has been boiling us, like frogs, for a decade. Should the decrees remain in force, the first reform achievement to be lost will be the RSJP itself \u2014 the remaining professionals will begin to leave. That will be the first casualty, but certainly not the last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JFor more on this topic,<\/a>, and for an excellent analysis by attorney \u0110or\u0111e Vukoti\u0107, please click here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Kori Udovi\u010dki<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Launch of CEVES's first economic governance report and panel discussion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On April 16, 2026, CEVES presented the report \u201eGovernance for Competitiveness: An Initial Assessment of Economic Governance,\u201c prepared with the support of the Delegation of the European Union to Serbia. This is CEVES's first report of its kind, which examines economic governance in Serbia through the prism of competitiveness, i.e., through the ability of the economy to achieve broad-based productivity growth and withstand competitive pressures in the process of approximating the European Union. The report was first published on the website at the very end of 2025, and presented in April 2026 as an initial assessment within a broader research cycle that CEVES will continue through annual reports. Work on the next edition has already begun with the renewed support of the Delegation of the European Union to Serbia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report analyses the first sub-criterion of a functioning market economy \u2014 economic governance \u2014 and its effects on competitiveness, productivity, and the sustainability of Serbia\u2019s growth model. Methodologically, the analysis combines a comparative tracking of Serbia\u2019s convergence towards the EU, a sectoral analysis of productivity and tradable activities, an examination of macroeconomic and real indicators, and a fiscal analysis of public expenditure and business support instruments. You can find the detailed methodology here<\/strong><\/a>The main finding is that Serbia has achieved macroeconomic stabilisation and gradual approximation to the EU over the past decade, but that this progress is constrained by slow productivity growth \u2014 particularly in the sectors underpinning export competitiveness and long-term economic resilience. The report highlights that the prevailing growth model has relied excessively on public investment, subsidised FDI, and cheaper labour, while the domestic private sector, technological upgrading, and small and medium-sized enterprises have remained insufficiently supported. This combination of policies creates the risk of a \u201cmanufactured Dutch disease\u201d \u2014 that is, rising costs and prices without commensurately strong real productivity growth, thereby gradually eroding the competitive advantage Serbia had built, as a result of errors in economic policy management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report's recommendations are focused on measures that can directly improve transparency, support for exports and the SME sector, monitoring of public investments and the quality of economic governance, as well as on preparing a broader institutional shift towards a growth model based on productivity. You can view the report here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Photo: Forbes Serbia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the report launch, a panel discussion was held, moderated by Prof. Dr. Branko Radulovi\u0107, with the participation of Academician Pavle Petrovi\u0107,\n\nProf. Dr. Miodrag Jovanovi\u0107, Dr. Kori Udovi\u010dki, Prof. Dr. Jasna Atanasijevi\u0107, and Dr. Andrej Bartosiewicz of the EU Delegation to Serbia. The discussion underscored one of the report\u2019s key messages: without the rule of law \u2014 encompassing not only an independent judiciary but also the professional, autonomous, and accountable functioning of executive institutions \u2014 Serbia cannot generate the productivity growth and genuine development of the domestic economy needed to escape the impasse of its current growth model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key message of the panel was that Serbia must make a developmental shift, from growth based on cheap labor and selective support to an economy based on productivity, domestic entrepreneurship, and equal rules of the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Pavle Petrovi\u0107 pointed out, growth based on \u201emass employment of cheap labor\u201d and investments with low added value \u201eis not sustainable in the long term.\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miodrag Jovanovi\u0107 emphasised that without inclusive institutions there can be no \u201cfundamental equality before the law,\u201d while Kori Udovi\u010dki stressed that in the pursuit of the rule of law, attention must be directed not only at the judiciary but also at the administration. In the same vein, Jasna Atanasijevi\u0107 noted that reforms require equipping civil servants with the capacity to assess the objective of a regulation and the effects expected from it. Andrej Bartosiewicz argued that transparency in state aid reduces the scope for special arrangements with individual companies. Only such a model can ensure that Serbia\u2019s growth is not merely faster, but fairer, more resilient, and grounded in the creation of genuine domestic value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Your CEVES Team<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Kori Udovi\u010dki, Pavle Medi\u0107, Ivona Janovi\u0107, Du\u0161an Kova\u010devi\u0107, Velibor Tati\u0107, Vojislav Stojanovi\u0107, and Jana Stankovi\u0107<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Copyright \u00a9 CEVES, All rights reserved<\/em>ed<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Maj 2026. CEVES Bilten Dragi na\u0161i prijatelji, saradnici i partneri, Delimo sa vama bilten za prvi kvartal 2026. godine, u kome se bavimo privredom koja na prvi pogled pokazuje ne\u0161to bolji rezultat nego tokom pro\u0161logodi\u0161njeg usporavanja, ali bez znakova \u0161irokog i odr\u017eivog oporavka. Iza preliminarne stope rasta od 3,0% sve jasnije se vidi iscrpljenost razvojnog […]<\/p>\n

Programska oblast: <\/span>Bilten<\/a>, Ekonomsko upravljanje i poslovno okru\u017eenje<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":14002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[98,59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bilten","category-ekonomsko-upravljanje-i-poslovno-okruzenje"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKako politika nastavlja da podriva konkurentnost i institucije - Ceves | Centar za visoke ekonomske studije<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kako politika nastavlja da podriva konkurentnost i institucije - Ceves | Centar za visoke ekonomske studije\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Maj 2026. CEVES Bilten Dragi na\u0161i prijatelji, saradnici i partneri, Delimo sa vama bilten za prvi kvartal 2026. godine, u kome se bavimo privredom koja na prvi pogled pokazuje ne\u0161to bolji rezultat nego tokom pro\u0161logodi\u0161njeg usporavanja, ali bez znakova \u0161irokog i odr\u017eivog oporavka. 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Iza preliminarne stope rasta od 3,0% sve jasnije se vidi iscrpljenost razvojnog […]","og_url":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/","og_site_name":"Ceves | Centar za visoke ekonomske studije","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CEVES.org\/","article_published_time":"2026-05-07T11:33:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-10-12T13:07:12+00:00","og_image":[{"width":655,"height":321,"url":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ceves-logo.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Stefan Radisavljevic","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@CEVES1","twitter_site":"@CEVES1","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Stefan Radisavljevic","Est. reading time":"11 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/"},"author":{"name":"Stefan Radisavljevic","@id":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/#\/schema\/person\/2c1e819f2d06fc068dd55466231f1e16"},"headline":"Kako politika nastavlja da podriva konkurentnost i institucije","datePublished":"2026-05-07T11:33:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-12T13:07:12+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/"},"wordCount":2075,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ceves-logo.jpg","articleSection":["Bilten","Ekonomsko upravljanje i poslovno okru\u017eenje"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/","url":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/kako-politika-nastavlja-da-podriva-konkurentnost-i-institucije\/","name":"How politics continues to undermine competitiveness and institutions - 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