{"id":7948,"date":"2022-06-30T12:34:36","date_gmt":"2022-06-30T10:34:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/?p=7948"},"modified":"2026-09-25T10:32:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T08:32:09","slug":"sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"CEVES OPSERVATORIJA 30.06.2022"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Uprkos energetskoj krizi, ratu u Ukrajini, te\u0161ko\u0107ama u globalnim lancima snabdevanja i potresima na globalnim tr\u017ei\u0161tima kapitala, <strong>globalni post-pandemijski privredni oporavak traje. Ovo je klju\u010dni faktor i u odr\u017eanju solidnog privrednog rasta u Srbiji, <\/strong>zasnovanog pre svega na spoljnim faktorima \u2014 relativno sna\u017enom rastu izvoza (5,7% realno u prvom kvartalu ove u odnosu na prethodnu godinu) relativno sna\u017enom prilivu stranih direktnih investicija (SDI \u2013 698 miliona evra neto u prva \u010detiri meseca). Uz to, i neki doma\u0107i faktori su imali zna\u010dajnu ulogu \u2013 kao \u0161to je sna\u017eni fiskalni stimulans (deficit od 4% BDPa) u kom pove\u0107ano tro\u0161enje na javne investicije igra klju\u010dnu ulogu (vi\u0161e o makroekonomskom okviru pro\u010ditajte u <a href=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/monitoring-izvestaj-i-preporuke-za-knjigu-preporuka-za-poglavlje-17-ekonomska-i-monetarna-politika\/?lang=SR\">Oceni Radne Grupe NKEU za Poglavlje 17<\/a>). U oba slu\u010daja taj rast je na staklenim nogama. Globalnom oporavku sve vi\u0161e prete napori klju\u010dnih centralnih banaka da istisnu inflaciju koja je u maju dostigla nivo od 8.8% u EU-27 (10,1% u Srbiji) i &nbsp;za sada ubrzava (otud i potresi na tr\u017ei\u0161tima kapitala). Ve\u0107 sama ta pretnja, velika je pretnja i za Srbiju, jer bi nas globalna recesija pogodila kako kroz smanjenje izvoza, tako i kroz smanjenje SDI koje mo\u017ee da se desi usled rasta globalne neizvesnosti.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Srpskom privrednom rastu prete i drugi faktori, pre svega izuzetno kratkoro\u010dni horizont sa kojim Vlada odgovara na sve slo\u017eeniju situaciju.<\/strong>&nbsp; Politi\u010dki efekat \u201ezbijanja redova\u201c koji prati svaki rat, pa i ovaj u Ukrajini, u Srbiji nije iskori\u0161\u0107en za pripremu gra\u0111ana na dugoro\u010dne promene u energetskom sektoru. Ako i uspemo da izbegnemo nesta\u0161ice, poskupljenje energenata je neminovno, i trebalo je da do njega ve\u0107 do\u0111e. Za sada pove\u0107anje tro\u0161kova uvoza energenata koje je u prva \u010detiri meseca 2022 iznosilo 130 miliona evra za elektri\u010dnu energiju, preko 900 miliona evra za gas, a sigurno i odre\u0111enu svotu za uvoz mazuta, \u201eapsorbuju\u201c javna preduze\u0107a \u2014 EPS, Srbijagas, i toplane. Drugim re\u010dima, do\u0107i \u0107e na naplatu u budu\u0107nosti koja je vrlo neizvesna. Njihove cene za doma\u0107instva i male komercijalne potro\u0161a\u010de nisu korigovane od po\u010detka krize, a za ve\u0107e komercijalne potro\u0161a\u010de samo jednim delom &nbsp;(vi\u0161e o \u201enaftnoj\u201c formuli\u201c u <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eD5AlyYz9Ok\">intervju<\/a>u). S druge strane, geostrate\u0161ka ambivalentnost Srbije u odnosu na rat u Ukrajini mo\u017ee da dovede da zaustavljanja dotoka kapitala ne samo sa zapada, ve\u0107 i iz drugih delova sveta.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ne vidimo u pripremi ni mere pove\u0107anja energetske efikasnosti kojima bi se ve\u0107 do slede\u0107e a pogotovo one tamo zime moglo zna\u010dajno doprineti smanjenju energetske potro\u0161nje, tj. i zavisnosti od uvoza. &nbsp;Ne vidimo ni druge mere koje bi mogle doprineti amortizaciji fiskalnih i ekonomskih udaraca koji \u0107e verovatno nastaviti da se umno\u017eavaju. Na primer, umesto zabrana izvoza i uz bolje promi\u0161ljanje upravljanja robnim rezervama, mere podr\u0161ke obezbe\u0111ivanju skupog \u0111ubriva kako bi se podr\u017eala poljoprivredna proizvodnja donele bi korist srpskoj privredi u uslovima pove\u0107anja cena njenih proizvoda koje \u0107e se sigurno odr\u017eati u srednjem roku. I u ovom slu\u010daju, kao i u slu\u010daju diskriminacije doma\u0107ih MSP, pored odsustva politi\u010dke ideje\/volje, problem je i neosposobljenost institucija za ciljano delovanje (videti <a href=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/sr-kori-udovicki-gostovanje-u-emisiji-marker-20-januar-2022\/?lang=SR\">intervju<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uprkos energetskoj krizi, ratu u Ukrajini, te\u0161ko\u0107ama u globalnim lancima snabdevanja i potresima na globalnim tr\u017ei\u0161tima kapitala, globalni post-pandemijski privredni oporavak traje. Ovo je klju\u010dni faktor i u odr\u017eanju solidnog privrednog rasta u Srbiji, zasnovanog pre svega na spoljnim faktorima \u2014 relativno sna\u017enom rastu izvoza (5,7% realno u prvom kvartalu ove u odnosu na prethodnu [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<div class=\"moje-dodatne-kategorije\"><span class=\"cat-label\">Programska oblast: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/category\/vesti\/\" class=\"moj-cat-link\">Vesti<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/category\/projekti\/ekonomsko-upravljanje-i-poslovno-okruzenje\/\" class=\"moj-cat-link\">Ekonomsko upravljanje i poslovno okru\u017eenje<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/category\/projekti\/razvoj-privatnog-sektora-i-industrijska-politika\/\" class=\"moj-cat-link\">Razvoj privatnog sektora i industrijska politika<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":4349,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,59,68],"tags":[60,71,69],"class_list":["post-7948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vesti","category-ekonomsko-upravljanje-i-poslovno-okruzenje","category-razvoj-privatnog-sektora-i-industrijska-politika","tag-investicije","tag-izvoz","tag-msp"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CEVES OPSERVATORIJA 30.06.2022 - Ceves | Centar za visoke ekonomske studije<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CEVES OPSERVATORIJA 30.06.2022 - Ceves | Centar za visoke ekonomske studije\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Uprkos energetskoj krizi, ratu u Ukrajini, te\u0161ko\u0107ama u globalnim lancima snabdevanja i potresima na globalnim tr\u017ei\u0161tima kapitala, globalni post-pandemijski privredni oporavak traje. Ovo je klju\u010dni faktor i u odr\u017eanju solidnog privrednog rasta u Srbiji, zasnovanog pre svega na spoljnim faktorima \u2014 relativno sna\u017enom rastu izvoza (5,7% realno u prvom kvartalu ove u odnosu na prethodnu [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/en\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ceves | Centar za visoke ekonomske studije\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CEVES.org\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-06-30T10:34:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-25T08:32:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ceves.org.rs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/second-home.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"361\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"223\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Stefan Radisavljevic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@CEVES1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@CEVES1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Stefan Radisavljevic\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Stefan Radisavljevic\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2c1e819f2d06fc068dd55466231f1e16\"},\"headline\":\"CEVES OPSERVATORIJA 30.06.2022\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-06-30T10:34:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-25T08:32:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":549,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/second-home.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Investicije\",\"Izvoz\",\"MSP\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Vesti\",\"Ekonomsko upravljanje i poslovno okru\u017eenje\",\"Razvoj privatnog sektora i industrijska politika\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ceves.org.rs\\\/sr-ceves-opservatorija-30-06-2022\\\/\",\"name\":\"CEVES OPSERVATORIJA 30.06.2022 - 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