Partner: German Corporation for International Cooperation GmbH (GIZ)

Year: 2017

The objective of the assignment was to provide order-of-magnitude assessments of the possible long-term impact of the adoption of circular economy practices in three sectors, on national macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, employment, net exports etc. The impact assessment was to serve as an input into the Circular Economy Strategy for the Republic of Serbia. The impact assessment was focused on the economic and social effects of implementing circular economy in the following sectors: Agriculture/Food industry, electrical and electronic equipment and plastic packaging. The assessment included estimation of revenues, costs, value added, profits and jobs generated in case of introducing circular economy in selected sectors. For the purposes of this project, CEVES developed the methodology for assessment of the economic impact of the circular economy using partial equilibrium sector-level modeling, relying principally on the re-calibration of other countries’ experiences to Serbia. Quantifying the changes in key macroeconomic indicators implied the difference in Target scenario (and reaching national targets) and Business as Usual scenario. The analysis included data collection (Serbian and EU official sources), semi-structured interviews with the key informants, growth estimation of economic activities and prices, benchmark analysis, etc.