Authors: Kori Udovički and Pavle Medić
There is no doubt that most Serbian citizens want change, but many still do not know to whom to entrust it. For over a year now, student protests have enjoyed the support of about six out of ten citizens. CRTA’s June survey shows that seven out of ten undecided voters also support them; almost three-quarters of these voters have no confidence in the current government and, on other ideological issues, are very close to supporters of the “Students’ List – Students Win” electoral list. After the energy on display and the publication of the Students' List, this support is almost certainly even higher now.
The undecided, then, are undoubtedly feeling unhappy living in a criminalized society. Yet even knowing that we are no "economic tiger", they feel that "things are moving", that "something is being built" and that "there are jobs", and they fear this could be lost. The government feeds this fear with stories of disaster should it leave office, playing the "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" card.
But, as usual, the truth is quite different. With that in mind, several important points need clarifying.
1. A student victory cannot destroy the state. There are two “technocratic” foundations for a healthy, prosperous, functioning state. One is the rule of law, the other macroeconomic stability. The latter means regular pension and public-sector salary payments, the absence of hyperinflation and sudden exchange-rate shocks, and sustainable public debt. After a period of deep instability, they are hard to establish. Once they are in place, preserving them requires competent people, institutions and responsible policy – but not irreplaceable politicians. Within his first few years in power, Vučić had already learned how far public finances could be stretched with impunity, and only now is he starting to test those limits. Siniša Mali has long overseen the state's finances, even though his personal integrity has been seriously called into question (to put it mildly). Nevertheless, stability does not rest on the two of them. The Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) have expert staff, rules and responsibilities that remain in place after a change of government. A new government will have to preserve that work, not build it from scratch.
That basic macroeconomic stability is being maintained is no proof that the state is well managed. Even with a moderate deficit and no current growth in debt, fiscal space can be spent on unscrutinized subsidies, overpriced and corrupt projects, and political deals, while public services fail citizens, and the domestic economy does not get what it needs. On that front, the current government's record is far worse. Development requires a public administration capable of consulting, planning, evaluating, and implementing policy, where expertise counts more than political obedience. The state is a tanker, not a speedboat: the government sets the course and answers for it, but the people in the administration, the public services, and other institutions keep the ship moving. While Vučić spent months putting together new governments, the outgoing ones handled day-to-day business, and the state continued to function.
The departure of the ruling majority will therefore not bring the state to a halt, nor will it, however, by itself dismantle the networks that siphon off public resources. This is where the rule of law comes in and the importance of a political mandate becomes clear. A government content merely to paper over the cracks can preserve basic stability for years while squandering fiscal space, weakening institutions and scaring good entrepreneurship and investors away. Serious damage does not require a monetary collapse. The strength of the students' plan is that it sets out to change the rules that allow such a concentration of power, including the concentration of power in the hands of any future government. In their words: 'We want to change the rules that allowed any government to gain this much power over institutions and citizens' lives.'
For fans of The Lord of the Rings, the claim that the state will collapse if the SNS goes is best illustrated by a scene from The Two Towers. Gandalf frees King Théoden from Saruman's influence while his kingdom of Rohan is falling into ruin. Saruman, speaking through the king, threatens: 'If I go, Théoden dies.' Gandalf replies: 'You did not kill me, you will not kill him.’ And so it was – Théoden comes to his senses and gets back on his feet. Only then can he face the state in which he found his kingdom.
2. The Students' List programme is exceptionally well drafted – and indisputably acceptable to any citizen who cares about their own future and that of the country, because it sets priorities clearly and precisely.
By re-establishing the fundamentals of the rule of law, it restores citizens' dignity, stops the looting of public money, and ensures that such rule is never repeated. It also radically increases domestic entrepreneurship and healthy investment (points 1–4). It clearly recognizes that institutions are made up of people and that these goals can only be achieved through the reform and professionalization of public administration (point 5) – which is precisely the lesson of the first point, and something CEVES has been insisting on for years. It is aware of the policies needed to keep the ship afloat – since the current economic model has run its course – and to set out on a path of socio-economic progress that finally rests on knowledge, innovation and domestic industry (points 6 and 7). It also chooses priorities that bear directly on citizens' well-being: security and a modicum of dignity for workers (8); an end to unjustifiably high retail prices, which hurt the majority and benefit a minority (9); and solutions to the biggest problems facing both young and old (10 and 11). No honest person can quarrel with priorities chosen in this way.
A little elaboration on economic stability: there is no reason to fear a massive exodus of foreign investors either, or a sudden turn defined by geography. Sticking by the rule of law also means the observance of contracts. The Students’ List programme is clear that it will review non-transparent deals, but members of the list have already made it amply publicly clear that they are sober, that they do not plan to cut the country’s nose to spite its face. Things will be brought out into the open, and the best possible course for Serbia chosen. The best possible course does not destroy value.
3. The issues the regime keeps pushing – and their true cost.
Paradoxically, the current regime has a disastrous track record precisely on the issues it brandishes most: East or West, and Kosovo. In fourteen years, it has failed to honestly formulate a single clear, achievable goal. And citizens pay dearly for the 'alliances' it boasts about. We have attracted foreign direct investment (from both the EU and the rest of the world) with disproportionate subsidies, as if in ten years we could not come up with anything better to offer – either to investors or to the domestic economy. Relations with Russia boil down to uncertainty over the gas deal and the fate of NIS under US sanctions. At the same time, this distances us from the EU, where our greatest economic interests lie. Relations with the EU come down to neglecting obligations that would benefit us as citizens (the rule of law, the fight against corruption, free elections – all of which would be fatal to those in power), while compensating for this at great cost through abrupt concessions, lying to the public and criminalizing Kosovo, promises of lithium and the like.
Relations with China increasingly resemble a classic colonial relationship, in which our side persistently ignores harm that may outweigh the benefits, though often we do not even know the scale of either.
Besides the protection money we pay through overpriced projects funded by Chinese loans – typically awarded without tenders and with layers of domestic intermediaries given the chance to take their cut – we have essentially no control over the resources extracted from our own country. As far back as 2019, the State Audit Institution warned that mining operators themselves report how much they have extracted and sold and how much in mining royalties they owe, while the state does only formalities in the verification of these figures. Controlling pollution and the wider environmental impact also requires capable inspection services and proportionate fines. Equipping them for even basic oversight of resource extraction and pollution requires precisely the kind of institutional capacity we constantly lack – capacity that, under this regime, is not only not being built but it is eroded. Instead, pre-election 'sweeteners' are handed out, as we describe in our Bulletin. The students' plan provides for restoring and developing exactly this kind of capacity.
The questions of East or West and Kosovo's final status have been awaiting an answer for years; they can wait a little longer. Providing a definitive answer is a task not for the next government but for the one that follows it, following the first truly democratic elections in many years. But it would be wrong to say that Kosovo does not matter. On the contrary, Kosovo will be on the desk of every democratic government from day one: the security and rights of Serbs, negotiations and commitments already made cannot wait for institutional reform to be completed. There is a difference between the duty to handle these matters responsibly and the demand to promise a final settlement in advance. For too long, backs have been turned on the people there; that must change, whatever the final status.
4. There are, of course, risks – and administrative reforms are crucial here.
One is that the outgoing government resorts to sabotage. Another, more subtle, is that the tanker does not sink but simply stalls. That is why a home-grown, well-prepared reform of the public administration, launched at the very outset, will be of paramount importance. Today there is a vicious circle: parallel, party-driven and opaque interference is used to speed up the administration's work – and that very interference gives the administration cover to evade its own responsibilities. That circle must be broken. Even the best administrations are never fast, let alone revolutionary; but it will be crucial to keep the tanker moving – and for that, from day one, the administration must believe that the era of political interference is over, and its desired direction must be crystal clear.
5. We build the state together.
A better state – not a perfect one, but one that can be trusted – must be built together by the citizens of Serbia. Students alone will not build it, nor will the 'people on the list', the EU, or some new leader or party; the existing system contains too many incentives that partly compel and partly entice any new political force to continue business as usual. That is why the students' plan is as concise as it is: to unite citizens around indisputable priorities and leave what divides us for later. And it will make for interesting viewing: for the first time in many years, we will hear parliamentary debates in which people think for themselves. If the students win, institutions will get the chance to do what they were created for – and it is up to the rest of us to help them and, if necessary, to replace them.
We will set out specific measures in forthcoming pieces; here we are merely flagging them. First, raising civil servants' capabilities through large-scale training and triage by testing – which, being based on objective criteria, will incidentally also weed out a large share of party placemen. Second, strengthening the inspection services, as the students' plan also calls for. We saw earlier, in the case of resource extraction, how badly lacking in capacity they are. There are now so few inspectors that almost nothing can be inspected. But beyond numbers, a cultural shift towards professional judgment, rather instead of “tick the box” exercises is equally important. This will be the hardest and slowest part. And third, genuine decentralization: it makes no sense, for example, for the central government to impose obligations on local authorities that their budgets cannot meet – because then the law has to be widely ignored and, once again, the rule of law disappears. None of these reforms will be achieved by copying foreign templates: they must be our own, tailored to Serbia's citizens, administration and culture – and here, as ever, we must think for ourselves rather than settle for reforms whose aim is unthinking 'alignment' with European blueprints for the sake of a sham European path.
