CBAM je prvi test: Srbiji je potrebna zelena industrijska politika koja može da sesprovede
CBAM is the first test: Serbia needs a green industrial policy that can actually be implemented
Srbija će CBAM test možda i položiti, ali je od prave zelene industrijske politike i dalje daleko. Regulativa koja se odnosi na CBAM i domaću cenu ugljenika usvaja se, iako u rokovima koji su za kompanije veoma napeti. Najveći deo potrebnog okvira već postoji, ali pojedina podzakonska rešenja i praktične procedure i dalje nedostaju. Kratkoročno, najveći problem biće verifikacija podataka koje kompanije dostavljaju EU kupcima i deklarantima. Dugoročno, ključni izazovi su nedovoljno razvijena (zelena) industrijska politika i neuverljiv tempo energetske tranzicije, dok se mogućnost uključivanja EPS-a u sistem ekvivalentan EU ETS-u nadvija kao velika horizontalna pretnja privredi, domaćinstvima i javnim finansijama.
To je glavna poruka konferencije „CBAM je samo prvi test: Zašto je Srbiji potrebna zelena industrijska politika?“, koju je CEVES organizovao u saradnji sa Privrednom komorom Srbije, uz podršku Fondacije za otvoreno društvo – Zapadni Balkan.
Miodrag Milosavljević, zamenik direktora Fondacije za otvoreno društvo – Zapadni Balkan, ističe da je važno da CBAM ne razumemo samo kao pretnju. On jeste pritisak, ali je istovremeno i rano upozorenje. Pokazuje nam gde su slabosti našeg razvojnog modela i kako moramo brže, pametnije i koordinisanije da delujemo.
Ako ga shvatimo ozbiljno, CBAM može biti prvi test sposobnosti Srbije i ostatka regiona da pređe iz logike prilagođavanja tuđim pravilima u logiku oblikovanja sopstvene razvojne strategije.
Zato nam je potrebna zelena industrijska politika. Ne kao još jedan strateški dokument koji će ostati na polici, već kao praktičan okvir koji povezuje energetiku, industriju, obrazovanje, inovacije, finansije i lokalni razvoj.
Evropska unija je kroz CBAM upravljanje karbonskom intenzivnošću pretvorila u uslov pristupa njenom tržištu. Od 2026. godine CBAM više nije samo režim izveštavanja, već ulazi u fazu finansijske izloženosti za proizvode iz sektora gvožđa i čelika, aluminijuma, đubriva, cementa, vodonika i električne energije. Formalna obaveza ostaje na EU uvoznicima i ovlašćenim CBAM deklarantima, ali srpske kompanije moraju da obezbede podatke o emisijama po proizvodu, metodologiju, verifikaciju, dokaz o plaćenoj ceni ugljenika i dokumentaciju koju kupci mogu da koriste.
„Ovaj proces se neće zaustaviti zbog geopolitike. Ko god da trlja ruke i čeka da ovo prođe, vara se“, poručio je Siniša Mitrović, savetnik predsednika Privredne komore Srbije i rukovodilac Centra za cirkularnu ekonomiju.
Prema CEVES izveštaju predstavljenom na konferenciji, izvoz industrijske CBAM robe iz Srbije u EU, bez električne energije, iznosio je oko 1,44 milijarde evra u 2025. godini. Izloženost je najveća u gvožđu i čeliku, sa 930,8 miliona evra izvoza, i aluminijumu, sa 401,1 milion evra, dok su đubriva dodala 103,3 miliona evra. Ovim procesom pogođeno je između 500 i 2.000 kompanija, direktno ili kroz lance vrednosti, a čist trošak CBAM-a za 2026. godinu procenjuje se na oko 120 miliona evra.
Učesnici su naglasili da je CBAM mnogo više od običnog poreza i da već menja poslovne odnose. EU kupci od srpskih kompanija traže procene ugrađenih emisija, metodologiju, status verifikacije i informacije o plaćenoj ceni ugljenika. Kompanije sa nižim stvarnim emisijama mogu izgubiti konkurentsku prednost ako podaci nisu prikazani po proizvodu, verifikovani i prihvaćeni od kupca. Ugovorne klauzule sve češće prebacuju buduće CBAM troškove, rizik default vrednosti i verifikacioni rizik nazad na izvoznike.
Stanislava Simić, direktorka Asocijacije srpske energetski intenzivne industrije, ukazala je da se industrija intenzivno priprema za CBAM, ali da ključni izazov nije samo popunjavanje izveštaja. Prema njenoj oceni, Srbiji je potreban ambijent koji omogućava investicije i dekarbonizaciju, uključujući predvidiv regulatorni okvir, pristup zelenoj energiji, korišćenje alternativnih goriva i sekundarnih sirovina, reformu upravljanja otpadom i vraćanje sredstava prikupljenih kroz takse privredi kroz odgovarajuće projekte. Ljubica Drake, generalna menadžerka za zaštitu životne sredine u HBIS Serbia, naglasila je da CBAM nije izazov jedne kompanije, već države u celini, posebno zato što kompanije moraju da povežu podatke na nivou postrojenja sa podacima po proizvodu, obezbede verifikaciju i istovremeno planiraju skupe investicije. Ona je ukazala i da administrativne prepreke, sporo izdavanje dozvola i nepostojanje jasnog strateškog plana ozbiljno otežavaju dekarbonizaciju čak i velikim kompanijama.
Energetska tranzicija predstavljena je kao najveći sistemski izazov. Potrebna ulaganja javnog sektora i državnih energetskih preduzeća procenjuju se na više od 20 milijardi evra do 2030. godine, dok se već kod postojećih prioritetnih energetskih projekata javljaju kašnjenja u pripremi, problemi sa projektnom dokumentacijom, imovinsko-pravnim pitanjima i značajnim uvećanjem troškova. U tom kontekstu, direktni CBAM trošak za izvoz električne energije ocenjen je kao manji problem od mogućeg uključivanja EPS-a u sistem ekvivalentan EU ETS-u. Ljubo Maćić, ekspert za energetski sektor, upozorio je da bi taj scenario, u zavisnosti od cene CO₂, mogao da stvori godišnji trošak reda veličine 2–3 milijarde evra, što EPS i potrošači u ovom trenutku ne bi mogli da podnesu bez jasne mape puta za dekarbonizaciju i podrške EU.
Konferencija je ukazala i na slabost domaće industrijske politike. Srbija ima razvijenu praksu privlačenja velikih investicija, ali nema dovoljno snažan sistem za široko unapređenje domaćih kompanija, MSP i dobavljača. Aleksandar Goračinov, direktor SME Hub projekta, ukazao je da mala i srednja preduzeća moraju da savladaju niz prethodnih koraka pre nego što mogu aktivno i efikasno da se bave CBAM-om i dekarbonizacijom, od kvaliteta upravljanja i internih procedura do podataka, finansijskog planiranja i sposobnosti da odgovore na zahteve kupaca.
Ognjen Popović iz Ministarstva finansija ukazao je da trošak CBAM-a nije dovoljan pokazatelj ukupnog izazova i da se pitanju mora pristupiti holistički, kroz investicije, konkurentnost, finansiranje, energetski sektor i pristup evropskim fondovima za dekarbonizaciju. Naglasio je da su za otključavanje tih sredstava potrebni i spremnost domaćih institucija i dogovor sa EU, jer bez podrške EU Zapadni Balkan rizikuje da ostane daleko iza. Popović je najavio i da Beogradska berza testira platformu za kupovinu ugljeničnih jedinica, koja bi kompanijama omogućila da finansijski upravljaju CBAM rizikom.
Zaključak konferencije je da Srbija ne može čekati da evropska pomoć reši domaće operativne praznine. U narednoj fazi potrebno je završiti preostala podzakonska akta za primenu zakona o ceni ugljenika, uspostaviti dokaz o plaćenom domaćem porezu koji EU deklaranti mogu da koriste, otvoriti vidljive budžetske linije za dekarbonizaciju u budžetu za 2027. godinu, usvojiti definiciju zelenih poslova i pripremiti jasnu mapu puta za elektroenergetski sektor. Zbog kompleksnosti i značaja, zelena tranzicija mora biti podignuta na viši politički nivo.
Konferenciju su organizovali CEVES i Privredna komora Srbije, uz finansijsku podršku Fondacije za otvoreno društvo – Zapadni Balkan.
PRESS RELEASE
Belgrade, 29 June 2026
Serbia might even pass the CBAM test, but it remains far from having a genuine green industrial policy. Regulations on CBAM and the domestic carbon price are being adopted, albeit under timelines that are tight for companies. While most of the framework already exists, certain bylaws and practical procedures needed to put it into effect are still missing. In the short term, the biggest problem will be verifying the data companies submit to EU buyers and declarants. In the long term, the key challenges are an underdeveloped green industrial policy and an unconvincing pace of the energy transition. Above all, there is the looming threat that EPS (Elektroprivreda Srbije) could be brought into a carbon-charging system equivalent to the European one (EU ETS): if electricity production from coal had to pay the full cost of emissions at the EU rate, this would become an unbearable burden for the economy, households, and public finances. These were the main messages of the panel discussion “CBAM is just the first test: Why does Serbia need a green industrial policy?”, organized by CEVES together with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia, with the support of the Open Society Foundation – Western Balkans.
Miodrag Milosavljević, Deputy Director of the Open Society Foundation – Western Balkans, pointed out that CBAM should not be seen only as a threat. While it creates pressure, it also serves as an early warning, exposing the weaknesses in our development model and showing where we need to act faster, smarter, and more coherently.
If taken seriously, CBAM can become Serbia’s first real test of whether it can move beyond adapting to rules set by others and begin shaping its own development strategy.
This is why Serbia and the rest of the region need a green industrial policy – not another strategy left on a shelf, but a practical framework linking energy, industry, education, innovation, finance, and local development.
As of 2026, CBAM is no longer just a reporting regime: it is entering a phase of financial exposure for iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, cement, hydrogen, and electricity. If these industries want to avoid being charged based on punitively high default assumptions about their CO₂ emissions, they must prove what their actual emissions are. The formal obligation remains with EU importers and authorized declarants, but Serbian companies must provide per-product emissions data, the methodology used, verification, proof of carbon price paid, and documentation usable by their customers. “This process will not stop because of geopolitics. Whoever is rubbing their hands together waiting for this to pass is mistaken,” said Siniša Mitrović, advisor to the President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia and head of the Circular Economy Center.
According to the CEVES report presented at the panel, exports of industrial CBAM goods from Serbia to the EU, excluding electricity, amounted to approximately €1.44 billion in 2025. Exposure is greatest in iron and steel (€930.8 million) and aluminum (€401.1 million), along with fertilizers (€103.3 million). Between 500 and 2,000 companies are affected by the process, either directly or through value chains, and the net cost of CBAM for 2026 is estimated at around €120 million.
CBAM is already changing business relationships. EU buyers are requesting estimates of embedded emissions, details of the methodology used, verification status, and information on the carbon price paid, while contractual clauses are increasingly shifting future CBAM costs, default-value risk, and verification risk onto exporters. Companies with lower actual emissions may lose their advantage if the data is not presented per product, verified, and accepted by the buyer.
Stanislava Simić, Director of the Association of Serbian Energy-Intensive Industries, pointed out that industry is preparing intensively, but that the challenge is not merely filling out reports: Serbia needs an environment that enables investment in decarbonization — a predictable regulatory framework, access to green energy, the use of alternative fuels and secondary raw materials, waste management reform, and the return of collected fees to the economy through concrete projects. Ljubica Drake, General Manager for Environmental Protection at HBIS Serbia, emphasized that CBAM is not the challenge of a single company but of the state as a whole: companies must link plant-level data with product-level data, ensure verification, and simultaneously plan costly investments.
Nearly all speakers emphasized that regulatory volatility and unpredictability, lack of coordination among institutions, and slow state responses are among the biggest obstacles to decarbonization — for both small and large enterprises. Administrative barriers and slow permit issuance further complicate already costly investments. As an illustration, panelists cited a project to install solar panels on schools in a Serbian city, which was halted just as it reached the public procurement stage — due to new regulations that made the job impossible to carry out as originally envisioned.
The energy transition was presented as the greatest systemic challenge. The investments required from the public sector and state energy companies are estimated at more than €20 billion by 2030, while priority projects are already experiencing delays in preparation, problems with documentation and property and legal issues, and significant cost overruns. In this context, the direct CBAM cost for electricity exports was assessed as a smaller problem than the possible inclusion of EPS in a system equivalent to the EU ETS. Ljubo Maćić, an expert in the energy sector, warned that this scenario, depending on the price of CO₂, could create an annual cost on the order of €2–3 billion — which EPS and consumers would not be able to bear without a clear decarbonization roadmap and EU support.
The panel also pointed to a weakness in domestic industrial policy: Serbia relies too heavily on attracting large investments but lacks a sufficiently strong system for broadly upgrading domestic companies, SMEs, and suppliers. Aleksandar Goračinov, Director of the SME Hub project, pointed out that small and medium-sized enterprises must master a series of preceding steps — from the quality of management and internal procedures to data, financial planning, and the ability to respond to customer requirements — before they can effectively engage with CBAM and decarbonization.
Ognjen Popović of the Ministry of Finance pointed out that the cost of CBAM alone is not a sufficient indicator of the overall challenge and that it must be approached holistically — through investment, competitiveness, financing, the energy sector, and access to European decarbonization funds. He emphasized that unlocking these funds requires both the readiness of domestic institutions and an agreement with the EU, since without EU support the Western Balkans risks falling far behind. He also announced that the Belgrade Stock Exchange is testing a platform for purchasing carbon units, which would give companies a financial tool for managing CBAM risk.
The conclusion of the discussion is that Serbia cannot wait for European assistance to resolve domestic operational gaps. The next steps must include completing the remaining bylaws for implementing the carbon price law, establishing proof of domestic tax paid that is usable by EU declarants, opening visible budget lines for decarbonization in the 2027 budget, adopting a definition of green jobs, and preparing a clear roadmap for the electricity sector. Given its complexity and importance, the green transition must be elevated to a higher political level.
